CFD Trading Strategy - Ascending Wedges Downside Breakout
Ascending wedges traditionally have been popular with traders on the short side and are not so often traded when it breaks in the upward direction. The data we have collected suggests this is not the best approach. An ascending wedge is defined by two lines, one on the lower boundary of the price movement which slopes up steeply towards the line on the upper side which also slopes up at a less of an angle.
Ascending Wedges Profitable, No Surprise
Ascending wedges are one of the least predictable patterns that are available to trade short. With just 32% of the patterns breaking down, ascending wedges struggle to deliver good returns when they do. The average gain is 0.02% in 8 days with less than half of the breakouts (42%) being profitable. These results are marginal and barely profitable, but selecting the right conditions can make trading ascending wedges attractive.
Refine Your Entries
A break to the downside works better in a rising market, with the sector falling. By using filters that require the market and stock to be in a consolidation or an up trend you can improve the results. The sector should also be in a consolidation or a down trend for the best results.
Breakouts can occur anywhere along the length of the ascending wedge pattern. The best pattern length is between 5 and 30 days, so very short term patterns and very long term patterns are best avoided.
Ensure that the volume is supportive of the breakout, i.e. volume as the stock falls is greater than volume as the stock rises. Avoid patterns that have two closes the same prior to the breakout as this is often a sign of an illiquid stock. Lower highs or lower lows prior to the breakout produce better results.
Trading Ascending Wedges Can Be Profitable
Incorporating these filters when selecting ascending wedges to trade short, dramatically improves the results. It also significantly reduces the number of trades to 74 from 1275, before the filters are applied. With an average return per trade of 1.46% in 10 days and a hit rate of 48% ascending wedges can be profitable when traded short, but selecting the right patterns can be challenging.
Statistics for this article have been provided by Patterns Trader after analyzing over 60,000 chart patterns on the Australian market from 2000 - 2008. - 23310
Ascending Wedges Profitable, No Surprise
Ascending wedges are one of the least predictable patterns that are available to trade short. With just 32% of the patterns breaking down, ascending wedges struggle to deliver good returns when they do. The average gain is 0.02% in 8 days with less than half of the breakouts (42%) being profitable. These results are marginal and barely profitable, but selecting the right conditions can make trading ascending wedges attractive.
Refine Your Entries
A break to the downside works better in a rising market, with the sector falling. By using filters that require the market and stock to be in a consolidation or an up trend you can improve the results. The sector should also be in a consolidation or a down trend for the best results.
Breakouts can occur anywhere along the length of the ascending wedge pattern. The best pattern length is between 5 and 30 days, so very short term patterns and very long term patterns are best avoided.
Ensure that the volume is supportive of the breakout, i.e. volume as the stock falls is greater than volume as the stock rises. Avoid patterns that have two closes the same prior to the breakout as this is often a sign of an illiquid stock. Lower highs or lower lows prior to the breakout produce better results.
Trading Ascending Wedges Can Be Profitable
Incorporating these filters when selecting ascending wedges to trade short, dramatically improves the results. It also significantly reduces the number of trades to 74 from 1275, before the filters are applied. With an average return per trade of 1.46% in 10 days and a hit rate of 48% ascending wedges can be profitable when traded short, but selecting the right patterns can be challenging.
Statistics for this article have been provided by Patterns Trader after analyzing over 60,000 chart patterns on the Australian market from 2000 - 2008. - 23310
About the Author:
Jeff Cartridge is a private trader and created the website LearnCFDs.com Ways to Make Serious Money With A Small Investment
posted by Mr. Forex at
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